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2024-12-13 12:36:44

In November, the CPI of the United States hit its biggest increase in seven months, but it is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates next week. The consumer price index of the United States recorded its biggest increase in seven months in November, but it is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates for the third time next week in the context of the cooling job market. Data show that CPI rose by 0.3% last month, the biggest increase since April, after the index rose by 0.2% for four consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI rose by 2.7% after rising by 2.6% in October. Compared with the peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of inflation has slowed down significantly. Nevertheless, in recent months, the process of reducing the inflation rate to the Fed's 2% target has actually stalled. However, the Fed is now more concerned about the labor market. Although employment growth accelerated in November after being severely disturbed by strikes and hurricanes in October, the unemployment rate accelerated to 4.2% after staying at 4.1% for two consecutive months.Market News: U.S. Congressman Nancy Mays was attacked in the Capitol because of the transgender bill.Analyst Anstey: Today's CPI data will hardly change anyone's prospects. However, those who still think that the Fed will remain inactive next week may reconsider, because inflation is not worse than expected. This seems to give the green light to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18th.


After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.CEO of Wells Fargo: The situation of low-end consumers is even more difficult. Consumer credit is still very strong.Syrian opposition forces announced the lifting of the curfew in Damascus. The Sham Liberation Organization, which currently controls the Syrian capital Damascus, issued a statement on the afternoon of the 11th local time, informing Damascus to lift the curfew and calling on local residents to return to their jobs and contribute to the construction of the city. Earlier, the organization announced that a curfew was imposed in Damascus, the capital of Syria. (CCTV News)


Russian central bank survey: the average key interest rate in 2024 is expected to be 17.5%, compared with the previous forecast of 17.3%. The average key interest rate in 2025 is expected to be 21.3%, compared with the previous forecast of 18%.Market News: Ukrainian President Zelensky used his first meeting with Donald Trump since the US election to show that Ukraine needs security in any negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.Siemens: It is proposed to increase the dividend from 4.70 euros in the previous year to 5.20 euros.

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